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Research Article

Academia Journal of Biotechnology 8(12): 264-272, December 2020
DOI: 10.15413/ajb.2020.0218
ISSN 2315-7747
2020 Academia Publishing



Mathematical modeling of population dynamics of the Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) mosquito with some climatic variables in Villa Clara, Cuba

Accepted 11th November, 2020

Rigoberto Fimia-Duarte1, Freddy E. Zambrano Gavilanes2, Jaime W. Aldaz Crdenas3, Ricardo Oss Rodrguez4, Idalberto Machado Valenzuela5, Eida de la Paz Glvez6, Romina B. Aldaz Segura7, Rafael Armiana Garca6, Frank M. Wilford Gonzlez6 and Jhajaira E. Aldaz Segura8

1Faculty of Health Technology and Nursing, University of Medical Sciences of Villa Clara, Cuba
2Faculty of Agricultural Engineering, Technical University of Manab, Manab, Ecuador
3School of Veterinary Medicine and Zootechnics. School of Agricultural Sciences, Natural Resources and the Environment. BolivarState University, Bolivar Province, Ecuador
4Villa Clara Provincial Meteorological Center, Cuba
5Provincial Unit for Surveillance and Antivectorial Control (UPVLA), Provincial Centre for Hygiene, Epidemiology and Microbiology (CPHEM) of Villa Clara, Cuba
6Central University "Marta Abreu" of Las Villas, Villa Clara, Cuba
7University of the Americas, Quito, Ecuador.
8National University of Chimborazo, Riobamba, Ecuador

Millions of people suffer from infections transmitted by arthropod vectors; among them, culicids are undoubtedly the most important in terms of hygiene and health because they are one of the priority health problems in almost all tropical and subtropical regions. The objective of the study was to establish a forecast model among some meteorological variables for the focus of the Aedes aegypti mosquito species, during the period from 2007 to 2017 in the province of Villa Clara, Cuba. The research covered the 13 municipalities of the province, as well as the number of outbreaks reported by them in the different months of the period analyzed. Regressive Objective Modeling was used for the development of the predictive model. Likewise, the response variable was defined as: the focus for A. aegypti and as explanatory variables, the meteorological variables: Maximum Temperatures (TX), Average Temperatures (TM), Minimum Temperatures (TN), Maximum Relative Humidity (HRX), Average Relative Humidity (HRM), Minimum Relative Humidity (HRN), Provincial Precipitation (Prec.), Air Pressure (AP), Average Wind Speed (VMV) and Cloudiness (Cloud). The data for both variables came from the same time period (2007- 2017) and were provided by the Villa Clara Provincial Meteorological Center, which covers the four meteorological stations in the province (Santa Clara, Manicaragua, Caibarin and Sagua La Grande). Data processing was done by Pearson and t student correlations, as a test of statistical significance with the SPSS statistical packagever.13. A perfect model was obtained for each of the studied municipalities, with the combination of delays 1, 2, and 6 and the influence that the meteorological variables have in the modeling of the population dynamics of the A. aegypti mosquito was demonstrated.

Key words: Aedes aegypti, culicids, regressive objective modeling, meteorological variables, Villa Clara.


This is an open access article published under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Cite this article as:

Duarte RF, Gavilanes FEZ, Cardenas JWA, Rodriguez RO, Valenzuela IM, Galvez FdlP, Segura RBA,Garcia RA, Gonzalez FMW, Segura JEA (2020). Mathematical modeling of population dynamics of the Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) mosquito with some climatic variables in Villa Clara, Cuba. Acad. J. Biotechnol. 8(12): 264-272.

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