Academia Journal of Biotechnology 8(12): 264-272,
December 2020
DOI: 10.15413/ajb.2020.0218
ISSN 2315-7747
2020 Academia Publishing
Abstract
Mathematical modeling of population dynamics of
the Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) mosquito
with some climatic variables in Villa Clara,
Cuba
Accepted 11th November, 2020
Rigoberto Fimia-Duarte1, Freddy E.
Zambrano Gavilanes2, Jaime W. Aldaz
Crdenas3, Ricardo Oss Rodrguez4,
Idalberto Machado Valenzuela5, Eida
de la Paz Glvez6, Romina B. Aldaz
Segura7, Rafael Armiana Garca6,
Frank M. Wilford Gonzlez6 and
Jhajaira E. Aldaz Segura8
1Faculty of Health Technology and
Nursing, University of Medical Sciences of Villa
Clara, Cuba 2Faculty of Agricultural Engineering,
Technical University of Manab, Manab, Ecuador
3School of Veterinary Medicine and
Zootechnics. School of Agricultural Sciences,
Natural Resources and the Environment.
BolivarState University, Bolivar Province,
Ecuador 4Villa Clara Provincial
Meteorological Center, Cuba 5Provincial Unit for Surveillance and
Antivectorial Control (UPVLA), Provincial Centre
for Hygiene, Epidemiology and Microbiology (CPHEM)
of Villa Clara, Cuba 6Central University "Marta Abreu" of
Las Villas, Villa Clara, Cuba 7University of the Americas, Quito,
Ecuador. 8National University of Chimborazo,
Riobamba, Ecuador
Millions of people suffer from infections
transmitted by arthropod vectors; among them,
culicids are undoubtedly the most important in
terms of hygiene and health because they are one
of the priority health problems in almost all
tropical and subtropical regions. The objective
of the study was to establish a forecast model
among some meteorological variables for the
focus of the Aedes aegypti mosquito species,
during the period from 2007 to 2017 in the
province of Villa Clara, Cuba. The research
covered the 13 municipalities of the province,
as well as the number of outbreaks reported by
them in the different months of the period
analyzed. Regressive Objective Modeling was used
for the development of the predictive model.
Likewise, the response variable was defined as:
the focus for A. aegypti and as explanatory
variables, the meteorological variables: Maximum
Temperatures (TX), Average Temperatures (TM),
Minimum Temperatures (TN), Maximum Relative
Humidity (HRX), Average Relative Humidity (HRM),
Minimum Relative Humidity (HRN), Provincial
Precipitation (Prec.), Air Pressure (AP),
Average Wind Speed (VMV) and Cloudiness (Cloud).
The data for both variables came from the same
time period (2007- 2017) and were provided by
the Villa Clara Provincial Meteorological
Center, which covers the four meteorological
stations in the province (Santa Clara,
Manicaragua, Caibarin and Sagua La Grande).
Data processing was done by Pearson and t
student correlations, as a test of statistical
significance with the SPSS statistical
packagever.13. A perfect model was obtained for
each of the studied municipalities, with the
combination of delays 1, 2, and 6 and the
influence that the meteorological variables have
in the modeling of the population dynamics of
the A. aegypti mosquito was demonstrated.
This is an open access article
published under the terms of the
Creative Commons Attribution
License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and
reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is
properly cited.
Cite this article as:
Duarte RF, Gavilanes FEZ, Cardenas JWA,
Rodriguez RO, Valenzuela IM, Galvez FdlP, Segura
RBA,Garcia RA, Gonzalez FMW, Segura JEA (2020).
Mathematical modeling of population dynamics of
the Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) mosquito
with some climatic variables in Villa Clara,
Cuba.
Acad. J. Biotechnol. 8(12): 264-272.
